Living CMS Evidence Tracker
2026 → 2027 Medicare Change Tracker
This page establishes the 2026 baseline that HealthPlan Connect will compare against new 2027 CMS enrollment releases. It is designed to distinguish real enrollment changes from pages that merely change an updated date.
Current baseline
Dataset generated: 9/22/2026
Coverage: 25 states · 2,127 counties
State baseline for 2027 comparisons
| State | Counties | 2026 beneficiaries | 2026 weighted MA % | 2027 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 58 | 7,227,101 | 51.5% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Florida | 67 | 5,323,728 | 57.2% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Texas | 254 | 5,004,324 | 54.8% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| New York | 62 | 4,047,041 | 53.6% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | 3,032,756 | 54.6% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Ohio | 88 | 2,623,888 | 56.6% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Illinois | 102 | 2,483,255 | 43.9% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Michigan | 83 | 2,320,424 | 63.6% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| North Carolina | 100 | 2,317,190 | 57.9% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Georgia | 159 | 2,025,008 | 56.2% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| New Jersey | 21 | 1,838,408 | 41.5% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Virginia | 133 | 1,752,759 | 39.6% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Arizona | 15 | 1,557,467 | 51.5% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Tennessee | 95 | 1,525,795 | 53.6% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Indiana | 92 | 1,423,455 | 50.9% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 1,370,855 | 57.5% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Missouri | 115 | 1,369,424 | 54.6% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| South Carolina | 46 | 1,282,897 | 46.7% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Maryland | 24 | 1,196,348 | 25% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Alabama | 67 | 1,141,497 | 61.5% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Colorado | 64 | 1,086,709 | 52.3% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Kentucky | 120 | 1,008,682 | 55.5% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Louisiana | 64 | 965,228 | 57.9% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Oklahoma | 77 | 828,457 | 42.5% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
| Mississippi | 82 | 656,328 | 45.3% | Awaiting comparable 2027 CMS release |
Update policy
When comparable 2027 CMS data becomes available, the evidence pipeline will recompute beneficiary totals, county ranks, state shares, weighted Medicare Advantage benchmarks and county-level variance. Until then, this tracker preserves the measured 2026 baseline rather than manufacturing a year-over-year comparison.